The Sixth Man: Pacers fail big test

Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A moral victory in professional sports borders on being a contradiction, at least until you actually see one.

There are no participation trophies when the big boys play, only the cold, hard reality of wins and losses. Lose by one or lose by 40, it still counts the same in the standings.

"I am a moral person, but I don't believe in moral victories," Sixers coach Doug Collins told me after one heartbreaking loss last season.

That stuck with me and it's the way a coach should think. After all, you never want to show any sign of weakness to your charges no matter what the opposition looks like.

That said, all losses are not created equally and the improved Pacers found that out Tuesday night when mighty Miami arrived at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and routed Indiana, 105-90.

It was a big test for an Indiana team trying to reach the next level and the Pacers were certainly catching the star-studded Heat at the right time. Miami was playing for the third time in three nights, and most expected even the league's most athletic players would wear down over stretches like that.

"I told these guys if you rebound, defend and have good ball movement, it's going to be hard to beat you," Indiana president of basketball operations Larry Bird said about his team before the game. "You have to keep the defense on their heels and you have to come ready to play every night. We talk about all these back-to-backs, but if you come in shape and mentally strong, you should be able to overcome all of that."

Bird's words ended up as one heck of a foreshadowing device for Miami. The Heat looked anything like a worn-down team and were as mentally strong as it gets.

Miami's stars were every bit as effective as usual. LeBron James netted 23 points to go with nine rebounds and seven assists, while Dwyane Wade chipped in 16 points and Chris Bosh added 13 for the Heat. Even rookie Norris Cole waxed the Pacers off the bench, matching a career-high with 20 points.

"When you have three games away in three days on the road, we knew we were going to have to come out and get a good start, and we did," Wade said. "We knew we had a job to do and I think we really outplayed them at both ends of the floor."

Miami swept games on three consecutive nights for the first time since 1999. It was the third time such a sweep has happened in the NBA this season, and the first to occur entirely on the road.

To me, though, it wasn't about the Pacers losing, it was how they lost. I'm not sure it's fair to expect Indiana to beat the Heat just yet, even on its home floor with Miami playing the finale of a back-to-back-to-back.

However, it's not a stretch to expect a fight. If the Pacers shot out of the blocks like Usain Bolt and faltered down the stretch, well, that would have been acceptable and an indication that they were headed in the right direction.

Instead the Heat began the game on fire. Wade knocked down all five shots he took in the first quarter and Miami shot 57.1 percent from the floor while holding Indiana to just 26.1 percent en route to a 33-16 edge after one.

Just like that it was over.

"They came out and jumped all over us. There was no way that we could battle back from the hole that we dug for ourselves," said the Pacers' Dahntay Jones. "They're one of the better teams in the NBA and they're not going to let you back in when they get you down the way they got us down tonight."

It was almost like the Pacers were spectators in their own building. The Heat were The Beatles. They were the attraction and Indiana gushed like screaming teenage girls.

In hindsight, the game was decided before the opening tip by Miami's reputation.

The Pacers' next step isn't beating the Heat -- it's believing they belong on the same floor. In other words, you need the moral victory before you get the real one.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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